PiQ Morning Blast

Morning Blast - 8th May: Gunfire in the Gulf, Bloodbath at the Ballot Box

PiQ Morning Blast is a daily live markets podcast hosted by Ryan Paisey and Michael Brown, covering global macro, geopolitics, and trading markets with no filter.
This morning Ryan and Michael opened with a significant overnight development: US military forces intercepted Iranian attacks on US destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, then struck the Iranian military facilities used to carry out the attacks. Trump framed it as defensive action and confirmed the ceasefire remains in effect. The key question: with Iran so fractured and leaderless after months of strikes, does anyone actually know who fired first?
On UK elections, a senior Labour source summed up the results in three words not printable here. With a third of English council results declared, Reform UK is winning roughly one in three seats declared while Labour is losing close to half of what it was defending. Projections of 1,800 Labour seat losses are circulating. Keir Starmer said he "will stand as Prime Minister at the next general election" – a quote both Ryan and Michael agreed will age badly. Watch the Sunday papers and the weekend political shows for when the real manoeuvring begins.
On NFP, Michael walked through the April US jobs report due at 1:30pm London: consensus 65,000, with leading indicators broadly positive including ADP at 109,000 and initial claims at cycle lows. But as Michael put it, this is unlikely to move the needle on Fed policy – markets are pricing virtually nothing from the Fed through year end and the central bank is firmly focused on inflation, not payrolls.
An unmissable Friday morning show. Subscribe and tune in every weekday at 8:30am UK.

Morning Blast - 7th May: Iran has a week, Labour has a problem

Iran has a week.
That is Trump's own timeline for a deal framework. He is flying to Beijing to meet President Xi in seven days and wants this wrapped up before he boards Air Force One.
Both sides are now entering the domestic sales phase. The punchy rhetoric from Tehran and Washington is aimed at the evening news in each country, not at each other. Ryan and Michael on why that distinction matters right now.
Markets at all-time highs. Bears still calling it a bear market rally. Why the pain trade is still higher and why the disbelievers are running out of road.
Local election day in the UK. Labour Implosion Day. The real risk for sterling is not tonight. It is Monday morning.

Morning Blast - 5th May: Markets Catch Up, Middle East Flare-Up, and UK's Election Jitters

Hosts return after a long weekend to discuss markets catching up, the Middle East missile strikes on the UAE, the RBA's third straight rate hike, Trump's tariff threats, yen intervention, and the week's economic calendar including jobs data and UK local elections.

Morning Blast - 1st May: MoF drops the hammer, Pill goes alone, ECB third time unlucky

Hosts Ryan and Michael deliver a candid, fast-paced market rundown covering Japan’s yen intervention, central bank confusion at the BOE and ECB, and the latest geopolitical developments in the Middle East.The episode mixes sharp opinion and market context with key data and earnings to watch, offering a lively take on what traders should be monitoring next week.

Morning Blast - 30th April: Fed's messiest vote, BoE on the spot, four hyperscalers and a Trump meme

Ryan and Michael Brown on a Thursday show with the Fed's messiest vote since 1992, a Bank of England decision under impossible circumstances, and four hyperscaler earnings to digest before Apple reports tonight.
On the Middle East, Trump posted to Truth Social that Iran cannot get their act together, accompanied by a machine gun meme captioned "No more Mr Nice Guy." US Central Command is briefing the President today on a range of military options, including potentially taking control of the Strait of Hormuz.
On the FOMC, the vote was eleven to one to hold, with Governor Miran dissenting for a cut. Three regional presidents separately dissented on the easing bias language in the statement, a distinction Michael unpacks in detail and explains why the eight-to-four framing you may have seen everywhere was wrong.
On earnings, all four hyperscalers beat, but Meta sold off after hours on the gap between its rising capex and its inability to monetise it the way Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft already are.
On the Bank of England, a hold at three and three quarter percent with the vote split the real story. Hugh Pill the likely hawkish dissenter, with Megan Greene and Catherine Mann potentially joining him.
Clive Lambert at FuturesTechs with the levels.

Morning Blast - 29th April: UAE walks, Gilts widen, Powell takes a bow

Ryan and Michael Brown on a Wednesday tape with three big stories and a quiet Middle East.
The UAE walked out of OPEC after sixty years, but with one pipeline maxed at one and a half million barrels a day, nothing changes until the Strait reopens.
UK gilts squeezed back near five percent on the ten-year, with the gilt-treasury spread blowing from twenty-five basis points to sixty-six.
Powell takes the chair for his probable last FOMC, with Kevin Warsh's Senate vote landing this afternoon.
Plus four hyperscalers report tonight, and copper is doing the talking on capex.
Clive Lambert at FuturesTechs with the levels.

Morning Blast - 28th April: Three dissenters, one Strait, and a trillion-dollar haircut

Ryan and Michael Brown on a Tuesday tape that came in three layers. The Bank of Japan held at 0.75 percent, but three of the nine wanted to hike and the inflation forecast just got rewritten upward.
 
OpenAI quietly cut its compute target from 1.4 trillion dollars to 600 billion, and the Microsoft deal got revamped into the bargain. And the Middle East stayed quieter than it has done in weeks, which is its own signal.
Plus a proper rant on Rachel Reeves' rumoured rent freeze, a side trip into yen intervention mechanics, and Clive Lambert at with the levels that matter.

Morning Blast - 27th April: Markets on Edge - Middle East Talks, Fed Shake-Up & MAG7 Earnings

Ryan and Michael deliver a candid market wrap with Clive's technical levels across equities, FX, bonds and commodities.They discuss Middle East diplomacy after Trump cancelled a Pakistan trip, ongoing talks with Iran, and the risks to the Strait of Hormuz and global shipping routes.They also cover the DOJ moving the Powell probe, Kevin Walsh's likely Fed confirmation, a busy week of central bank meetings, and major MAG7 earnings that could drive market volatility.

Morning Blast - April 24th: Tech Glitches, Market Moves & Middle East Rumors

Hosts Ryan and Michael return to Twitter Spaces with tech problems and a candid, no-nonsense discussion covering market updates, Clive Lambert's key levels, and reactions to Middle East headlines.
The episode includes a heated rant about ICE extending trading hours, retail sales context, energy and metals moves, and a look ahead to a packed week of central bank decisions.
 

Morning Blast - April 23rd: Markets Move, Ceasefire Update & Gold's Quiet Ride

The hosts return live to X/Twitter Spaces with a candid market roundup covering S&P and Nasdaq moves, commodities and bond action.
They discuss the reported indefinite US–Iran ceasefire, shipping routes, and why equities are rallying on FOMO and strong earnings surprises.
UK borrowing, upcoming PMI prints, and why gold remains subdued despite geopolitical risk are also reviewed in this short episode.